Well, here we are. Trump is still rising, and were the election held today, he would beat Clinton, Sanders, Biden, and Gore in a general election, according to the latest polls. The situation has developed faster than I anticipated. However, it his current numbers among African Americans, not to mention Hispanics, that bring me to write, today, of something I have believed since the day he launched his campaign:
Trump can win the black vote, and with it, win the White House in a landslide. The process by which that reality manifests is already underway.
A Survey USA poll shows him capturing 25 percent of the black vote in a general election, which is more than any other Republican candidate in the previous 10 Presidential Election cycles (the previous high going to Bob Dole in the 90’s, at 12 percent). To give further illustration, Mitt Romney garnered just 6 percent in the last election, McCain 4 percent in the one before, and Bush The Younger 11 percent the first time around, and 8 percent the second.
Ever since he launched his campaign, the path he could take to the White House was almost immediately clear to me. It is no secret that Obama is not universally loved by minorities (to anyone with their eyes open, anyway), though you wouldn’t know it to look at the news. In particular, African Americans are worse off under the first black President than any white ones in recent decades, and he has done more to increase racial tension in the United States than any other President within the same time period.
Now, I admit, 25 percent doesn’t seem big on its own, and obviously many more would vote for Clinton, Biden, or Sanders, if the election were held today. However, his numbers are still growing, and the election a long way off. I believe it plausible to imagine a scenario where he wins over 50 percent of the black vote by 2016.
This key demographic is evolving, and has learned two things: 1.\ It doesn’t have to vote Democrat, which it historically has (not so surprising once everyone remembers that it was the GOP who championed abolition) and 2.\ They can, indeed, vote for a white man so long as he represents them.
This is the hidden genius of Donald Trump. Some of the very things white America derides about him resonate with black America, and it doesn’t stop there.
The racial tension and hatred being fomented under Obama rightly pisses off thinking minorities (and whites, who are by and large its’ greatest victims), and they are sick of politics as usual, which haven’t served to fix the problems being experienced by all. They can see that “Red and Blue ain’t working for you”, and haven’t been for almost 2 decades.
I know it sounds crazy, but barring some unforeseen change of fortunes, Trump will, at the very least, trigger the most incredible demographic shift away from the Democratic party in modern times.
Who knows, Trump’s campaign, like any campaign, could implode long before then. But, I caution: Do not underestimate Trump. The man is a genius, and far smarter than the majority of the people heaping scorn on him across the media spectrum. His greatest strength is being himself, all the time. He is someone who has a television personality so closely meshed with who he truly is that one is the other, in spite of their important differences, and the result is genuine. Scorn and laughter cannot defeat him alone.
Mark Twain once said “If you tell the truth, you don’t have to remember anything”, and with that in mind, again, I say, people, you best pay attention. I don’t pretend to say here that he is always forth coming, and angelically honest. But in comparison with career politicians who all to often are professional, pathological liars, he comes up closer by a mile. The very fact that he basically admits, as a business man, that he bought influence is profoundly honest, and foreign to a political process which exists within the perpetual lie of it’s own virtue.
Combine this with his distinctive, and refreshing, nationalist/protectionist positions, and you have a candidate that, rather than divide, can cut across racial divide and draw strength from every ethnic group (other than illegals, of course).
The conclusion….Are you ready for it?
Donald Trump is capable of being America’s greatest unifier. Preposterous? Well, I would argue that the greatest forces of change in the entire course of human history were preposterous, and existed in the personalities of men and women who wedded contradictions together with honest ease.
Think it a stretch? Well, one further detail to illumine my argument before I leave over, for now.
In spite of all the propaganda about his supposed racism, he currently enjoys more Latino support than Mitt Romney did after a year and half of campaigning, and he has nothing but time to build the base. I think he will have a harder time capturing a majority of Latinos, but I’ll be damned if I can say that I can rule it out.
The 60/40 Trump win that flashed before my mind’s eye the day he launched his campaign is becoming, everyday, more probable.
People reading this, I am telling you again, it doesn’t matter where you are in North America, this man will touch your life. Electing him represents an incredible gamble, as the unifying power he could exert over the American public is a double edged sword, cutting externally much more than internally.
To finish, I have always been a Canadian Nationalist who recognizes the United States as family: We may hate them at times, but we cannot escape them. We will continue to sit down at the same table far more often than not, sharing our meals, and our relationship is inescapably deep rooted.
We are blood with America, and we need our eyes wide open when it comes to what is happening within the family.